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HomeMy WebLinkAboutAgenda 05L_Exhibit 014 Traffic Impact Study Lamoureux & Dickinson i Consulting Engineers, Inc. O’Brien Home Farm Traffic Impact Assessment June 16, 2020 Executive Summary The following summarizes the results of the traffic impact assessment (TIA) for the O’Brien Home Farm Phase Two mixed use development project (hereafter referred to as the Project). This Project proposes to develop lands of O’Brien Brothers located along Kimball Avenue, Old Farm Road and Kennedy Drive in South Burlington. The involved zoning districts include the R1, C1-LR and I-C districts. The proposed development includes: C 126 residential units in single-family residences and duplexes, C 289 mid-rise multi-family units, C 120 attached congregate care units, C a 120 room hotel, C 4,000 sf of retail space, and C 406,000 sf of medical-dental office and commercial space. The initial construction phase of this Project will be the single-family and duplex residential units in the R1 Area. Subsequent construction phases will be market driven. Because this Project will most likely be developed over an extended time period this TIA examines future traffic conditions over a 10-year period commencing in 2022 instead of the traditional 5-year period. The study area of this TIA extends from Hinesburg Road on the west to Gregory Drive on the east, and from Williston Road south to Kimball Avenue, Kennedy Drive and Old Farm Road. Capacity analyses determined that each major intersection in this study area will experience acceptable levels of service upon the construction of the proposed residential units in the R1 Area. However, additional development will trigger selected roadway and intersection improvements to mitigate future traffic congestion impacts. A key roadway modification proposed by this Project is to relocate the northern section of Old Farm Rd to intersect with Kimball Ave directly opposite the existing access to the 20-30 Kimball Ave office complex. This will increase the separation between Old Farm Rd and Kennedy Dr, and reduce existing traffic conflicts in that immediate area. It is proposed to construct this relocation as the residential construction in the R1 Area nears completion and development in the C1-LR Area commences. This Project includes construction of new sidewalks and shared-use paths linking with the City’s existing sidewalk / shared use path network. It also proposes traffic calming measures on Old Farm Road to slow traffic traveling through the residential area and to improve safety for bicyclists and pedestrians. Ultimately, the following roadway and intersection improvements will be needed as this Project progresses towards full completion (build-out): Kennedy Dr / Kimball Ave intersection C Modify the signal phasing to provide split phasing for the Kimball Ave and Bayberry Lane approaches. C Lengthen the right-turn lane on the northbound Kennedy Dr approach. C Widen the westbound Kimball Ave approach to provide double left-turn and right-turn lanes. C Modify the existing traffic signal cantilever/mast arm poles to accommodate the above widening. Lamoureux & Dickinson ii Consulting Engineers, Inc. Kimball Ave / Old Farm Rd intersection C Widen Kimball Ave to provide right- and left-turn lanes for traffic turning onto Old Farm Rd. C Provide separate left- and right-turn lanes on the new Old Farm Rd approach. C Install a new traffic signal when warranted. Kimball Ave / I-C Lots Access Rd intersection C Widen Kimball Ave to provide right- and left-turn lanes for traffic turning onto Old Farm Rd. C Provide separate left- and right-turn lanes on the new I-C Lots Access Rd approach. C Install a new traffic signal when warranted. Williston Rd/Gregory Dr intersection C Install a new traffic signal when warranted (TBD in an addendum to the TIA). Hinesburg Rd/Old Farm Rd intersection C Widen the Old Farm Rd approach to provide a short right-turn slip lane. Conceptual plans illustrating the above improvements are attached to the TIA. Based on this Project’s estimated pm peak hour trip generation and directional patterns, it will also pay almost $3,000,000 in state and local transportation impact fees to mitigate its projected traffic impacts at other nearby off-site intersections and almost $700,000 in a local recreation impact fee. A large majority of the latter will be used to construct off-site sidewalk and shared use path improvements in the City of South Burlington. The TIA concludes that with the above improvements and impact fees, the existing street network in the immediate vicinity will have sufficient capacity and safety to accommodate the additional traffic generated by the Project. Lamoureux & Dickinson Page 1 Consulting Engineers, Inc. O’Brien Home Farm Traffic Impact Assessment June 16, 2020 1.0 Introduction This traffic impact assessment (TIA) examines the potential traffic congestion and safety impacts of the proposed O’Brien Home Farm Phase Two development. The O’Brien Home Farm originally included lands east of Kennedy Drive and Hinesburg Road, along both sides of Old Farm Road, and along both sides of Kimball Avenue. Large portions of the farm have been developed over the years. Most recent is the Hillside at O’Brien Farm Phase One1 development presently under construction between Hinesburg Road, Kennedy Drive and Old Farm Road. O’Brien Home Farm Phase Two includes lands located on both sides of Old Farm Rd, fronting on Kennedy Drive and Kimball Avenue. Specifically, the land involved contains three distinct zoning districts, the Residential 1 PRD zoning district (“R1”), the Commercial 1 Limited Retail zoning district (“C1-LR”) and the Industrial Commercial zoning district (“I-C”). Each district allows for specific uses. City of South Burlington’s Land Development Regulations (LDR) require uses to be located on the land that is zoned accordingly; preventing mixing of certain uses across zoning lines. Given this, the potential uses in distinct areas of the Project will be identified herein by the zoning district in which those uses are located. The following mix of residential and commercial development is permissible in the R1 and C1-LR Areas of the Project: C 126 residential units in single family residences and duplexes (R1),2 C 289 mid-rise multi-family units (C1-LR), C 120 attached congregate care units (C1-LR), C a 120 room hotel (C1-LR), C 14,000 sf of retail space (C1-LR), and C 97,000 sf medical-dental office and commercial space (C1-LR). The above development will be accessed by several new side streets located on both sides of Old Farm Rd and also linking with the adjacent Phase One development. The northerly portion of Old Farm Road will be relocated; moving the intersection of Kimball Ave and Old Farm Rd ±360 ft east to be directly opposite the existing driveway access serving the office complex at 20-30 Kimball Ave and 275 Kennedy Dr. O’Brien Home Farm Phase Two also includes nine new industrial/commercial lots located further east on Kimball Ave in the I-C zoning district. While a range of uses are possible, this TIA is based on 309,000 sf of medical-dental office and commercial space to be distributed among the new I-C lots. This sizing is based on a schematic analysis of possible building and parking layouts, and represents an estimate of this area’s future build-out potential. The I-C Lots will be served by a separate new street accessing directly onto Kimball Ave. The location of the Project and the intersections which will be examined in this TIA are shown in Figure 1. More specifically, this TIA will: C Project present and future background design hour traffic volumes and traffic congestion conditions at major intersections near the Project. C Determine the future vehicular trip generation and peak hour directional patterns of the proposed land- uses. C Evaluate whether the proposed development will create unreasonable traffic congestion conditions. 1 Also sometimes referred to as Phase One. 2 Duplex units are treated as single family units for trip generation purposes. Lamoureux & Dickinson Page 2 Consulting Engineers, Inc. C Examine traffic safety conditions. C Identify the scope of traffic improvements required to mitigate the effects of the proposed development. For the purpose of this TIA, it is anticipated that construction of this Project will begin in 2022, and will require 5-10 years to complete. This TIA therefore examines future traffic conditions for the years 2022 and 2032. Figure 1 - Project Location and Study Intersections 2.0 Background Traffic Volumes For this study, background traffic volumes were obtained from recent traffic counts performed by the Vermont Agency of Transportation (VTrans). The study area of this TIA extends from Hinesburg Rd east to Industrial Avenue, and from Williston Rd south to Kennedy Dr and Old Farm Rd. The existing and proposed intersections which will be examined in this TIA are shown in Figure 1. Weekday turning movement count data is available at all but one of the existing intersections; Williston Rd/Gregory Dr. Unfortunately, as work on this TIA was beginning, the COVID-19 pandemic struck, and the resulting sharp decline in traffic volumes has prevented our being able to perform new weekday am and pm peak period turning movement counts at this intersection. Future traffic conditions at this location will be addressed in a supplement to this TIA when normal traffic patterns resume. Three new intersections are associated with this Project. The first, Kennedy Dr/Two Brothers Dr, will be constructed as part of the Hillside at O’Brien Farm Phase One development. Future peak hour turning movement volumes for this intersection were obtained from the TIA performed by this office for that development. The second proposed intersection is Kimball Ave/Old Farm Rd. The northerly portion of Old Farm Rd is proposed to be relocated as part of this Project; moving this intersection approximately 360 ft to the east to line up opposite the access to the office complex on the north side of Kimball Ave. The third new intersection will be located on Kimball Ave at the new street serving the I-C Lots. Lamoureux & Dickinson Page 3 Consulting Engineers, Inc. Existing traffic count data indicates that the adjacent street network in the immediate vicinity of this Project experiences its highest traffic volumes during the afternoon peak hour period. Hourly traffic data from nearby VTrans continuous count stations (CTC) located in South Burlington and Williston reinforce this. Thus, the pm peak hour is the time period during which the design hour volume (DHV) generally occurs. The DHV is the 30th highest hourly traffic volume that occurs in a given year, and is used in the design of highways and intersections to determine existing and future traffic congestion conditions. To adjust the observed peak hour volumes to a design hour (DHV) condition, daily adjustment factors corresponding to the dates of the turning movement counts were calculated from nearby CTC’s. Additional adjustments were also made to account for future background traffic growth from the year of each turning movement count to the years 2022 and 2032. From VTrans data3, traffic growth in Vermont’s urban areas during the 2015 - 2019 period was flat (zero growth). From 2019 to 2022 and from 2022 to 2032, VTrans projects 2% and 5% traffic growth rates, respectively. Detailed design hour volume calculations are enclosed as Appendix A. The resulting estimated 2022 and 2032 background peak hour volumes for each intersection are shown in Figures 2 - 5. 3.0 Other Approved Development Peak Hour Trips To the above ‘No-Build’ pm peak hour volumes must also be added trips generated by other nearby major developments that have received their state and local permits, but have not yet been constructed. The first “Other Development” is the Hillside at O’Brien Farm Phase One development. Although this development is presently under construction and some homes have been completed, it is treated in this TIA as an unbuilt development. Estimated morning and afternoon peak hour trips for Hillside at O’Brien Farm Phase One were obtained from the TIA for that project.4 The second “Other Development” is the proposed FedEx Ground Distribution Center to be located on Community Drive at Technology Park. Estimated morning and afternoon peak hour trips were also obtained from the TIA for that project.5 The total peak hour trips from the above two developments are shown on Figures 6 - 7. Following that, Figures 8 - 11 present the sum of the 2022 and 2032 background peak hour volumes and other approved development trips. This is also referred to as the “No-Build” development scenario (see below). 4.0 Project-Generated Peak Hour Trips The trip generation of this Project was estimated using published trip generation rates6 for the proposed residential land-uses. In the case of the proposed commercial land-uses, the estimated peak hour trips are intended to include a broad range of potential businesses. It is proposed that medical-dental offices will comprise a large portion of the commercial development. Should actual land-uses and their sizes differ substantially from the above, careful attention will be needed to track the resulting peak hour trip generation relative to the estimated trips outlined below. 3 Continuous Traffic Counter Report Based on 2018 Traffic Data, Vermont Agency of Transportation, February 2019 and unpublished 2019 traffic data. 4 O’Brien Home Farm PUD - Phase 1 Traffic Impact Assessment, Lamoureux & Dickinson, August 8, 2016 5 Proposed FedEx Ground Distribution Center Traffic Impact Study, VHB, September 4, 2019 6 Trip Generation, Institute of Transportation Engineers, 10th Edition Lamoureux & Dickinson Page 4 Consulting Engineers, Inc. The ITE has also developed a methodology for estimating the internal capture of pm peak hour trips between the residential, office space, restaurant and retail components of mixed-use developments.7 While this Project includes connections with Phase One of the Hillside at O’Brien Farm development which will logically expand the internal trip capture between them, for the purpose of this study, the internal capture calculations have been limited to just the this Project (Phase Two). Additionally, internal trip capture for the I-C Area has been calculated separately from the R1 and C1-LR Areas. The same methodology also incorporates modal- split calculations to account for non-vehicular travel. For the purpose of this TIA, however, all trips were estimated to be vehicle trips without any credit for transit or bicycle/pedestrian trips. The resulting peak hour vehicular trip generation are summarized in Tables 1 and 2. Detailed calculations are enclosed in Appendix B. Table 1 - O’Brien Home Farm Phase Two, R1 and C1-LR Areas Weekday Peak Hour Project-Generated Vehicle Trips (vte/hr) Land-Use AM Peak Hour PM Peak Hour Enter Exit Total Enter Exit Total Single-Family Residential 23 70 93 80 47 127 Multi-Family Residential (Mid-Rise) 25 72 97 75 48 123 Congregate Care Units 8 16 24 17 14 31 Hotel 33 23 56 33 31 64 Office/Commercial 172 117 289 336 321 657 Total Trips 261 298 559 541 461 1,002 Internal Capture Vehicle Trips 6 6 12 111 111 222 Transit & Non-Motorized Trips 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total External Vehicle Trips 255 292 547 430 350 780 Table 2 - O’Brien Home Farm Phase Two, I-C Area Weekday Peak Hour Project-Generated Vehicle Trips (vte/hr) Land-Use AM Peak Hour PM Peak Hour Enter Exit Total Enter Exit Total Office/Commercial 449 132 581 411 731 1,142 Internal Capture Vehicle Trips 15 15 30 16 16 32 Transit & Non-Motorized Trips 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total External Vehicle Trips 434 117 551 395 715 1,110 Some commercial land-uses also typically attract “pass-by” trips in addition to creating new “primary” trips. Pass-by trips are generated by motorists who are already driving by the site on the adjacent roadways; in this case Kennedy Drive or Kimball Ave. Instead of simply driving by, they enter the Project, and then exit in the same direction that they were originally traveling. For the purpose of this TIA, potential pass-by trips were 7 Trip Generation Handbook, Institute of Transportation Engineers, 3rd Edition Lamoureux & Dickinson Page 5 Consulting Engineers, Inc. not estimated. As specific commercial uses are identified, however, they may become significant in reducing future off-site traffic impacts. The directional distributions of weekday peak hour project trips were estimated based on U.S. Census residence to work travel patterns for the City of South Burlington. This data is available in two formats; the workplace destinations of South Burlington residents, and the origins of people traveling to work in South Burlington. Since residential trip patterns are primarily determined by the geographic distribution of employment opportunities8, the workplace destinations of South Burlington residents can be applied to estimate the directional patterns of those trips. Conversely, commercial trip patterns are primarily determined by the geographic distribution of population within an anticipated sphere of influence. Thus, the commercial trip patterns were based on the origins of people traveling to work in South Burlington. The resulting directional distributions of morning and afternoon peak hour Project-generated trips are shown in Figures 12 - 13. Detailed peak hour project trip distribution calculations are enclosed in Appendix C. Adding Project-generated trips to the No-Build volumes provides the projected 2022 and 2032 Build volumes shown in Figures 14 - 17. 5.0 Traffic Congestion Levels of service (LOS) at intersections are determined by the average control delay; measured in seconds per vehicle. The methodology for analyzing LOS is established by the Highway Capacity Manual (HCM)9. The analyses were performed using Synchro 10. Table 3 summarizes the LOS and delay criteria for signalized intersections. Table 3 - Intersection Level of Service Criteria LOS Avg. Delay (sec/veh) Quality of Service Stop Controlled Signal Controlled A B C D E F ≤10 ≤15 ≤25 ≤35 ≤50 >50 ≤10 ≤20 ≤35 ≤55 ≤80 >80 Free flow with little or no queuing Low delays with short queues Moderate delays and queues with occasional cycle failures* Moderate delays and queues with noticeable cycle failures Long delays and queues with frequent cycle failures Very long delays and queues with continued cycle failures * A cycle failure occurs when a vehicle has to wait more than one signal cycle to pass through the intersection. The City of South Burlington’s LDR’s identify LOS D as the minimum standard for the overall level of service at signalized intersections. The LDR’s also identify LOS D as the minimum standard for each through movement on the major street. VTrans’ Level of Service Policy10 for the state highway system identifies LOS C as the desired design standard, except that reduced LOS may be acceptable on a case-by-case basis, particularly within densely settled areas 8 Traffic Impact Analysis, American Planning Association, 1984 9 Highway Capacity Manual, Transportation Research Board, 6th Edition 10 Highway Design “Level of Service” Policy, Vermont Agency of Transportation, May 31, 2007 Lamoureux & Dickinson Page 6 Consulting Engineers, Inc. where the geometric improvements required to achieve LOS C would create negative cultural and environmental impacts. In cases where the existing LOS is less than desired and where the necessary geometric improvements are not feasible, the policy states that a lower LOS may be acceptable, provided that a development’s impact can be effectively mitigated by implementing other congestion management strategies. VTrans’ LOS Policy has been generally interpreted in built-up areas to permit LOS D as an acceptable overall intersection rating for signalized intersections. Also, that individual lane groups or approaches may experience LOS E. However, should an individual lane group or approach experience LOS F or a volume/capacity ratio greater than 1.0, the intersection is considered to have failed. In cases where an intersection fails under projected no-build and/or build conditions, mitigation may be required, if reasonably possible, in order to mitigate a development’s traffic impacts and not exacerbate the no-build conditions. LOS standards for unsignalized intersections are different than for signalized intersections. The LDR do not specifically establish a LOS standard for stop-controlled intersections. On the other hand, VTrans’ LOS Policy identifies LOS D as the minimum design standard for traffic exiting a stop-controlled approach when traffic volumes on that approach equal or exceed 100 vph for a one-lane approach, or 150 vph for a two-lane approach. VTrans does not identify a LOS standard for stop-controlled intersections having lower traffic volumes. This Project’s impact on future levels of service and average delays was analyzed by performing intersection capacity analyses for five development scenarios: C No-Build. This development scenario includes background traffic growth and other development- generated traffic as described above, but no Project-generated trips. C Ø2 SF Residential Build. This development scenario adds only the 126 single family and duplex units in the R1 Area to the No-Build traffic volumes. C Ø2 Residential Build. This development scenario adds all of the residential development trips from the R1 and C1-LR Areas to the No-Build traffic volumes. C Ø2 Residential + ½ Commercial Build. This development scenario adds all of the residential development trips from the R1 and C1-LR Areas plus 50% of the projected full-build commercial development trips from the C1-LR and I-C Areas to the No-Build traffic volumes. C Full-Build. This development scenario adds all of the residential development trips from the R1 and C1- LR Areas and all of the projected full-build commercial development trips from the C1-LR and I-C Areas to the No-Build traffic volumes. All four development scenarios were analyzed during the 2032 design year; but only the first two during the 2022 design year, as the office/commercial uses are not expected to be constructed that quickly. The traffic congestion impacts of the Project can be identified by comparing the results for each development scenario. The results are presented for each intersection below. Detailed intersection capacity analyses worksheets are grouped by intersection and enclosed in Appendices D - M. Williston Road/Hinesburg Road/Patchen Road Table 4 presents the results of the intersection capacity analyses at this intersection. The results indicate that LOS C will be maintained for all analyzed development scenarios. Detailed results are enclosed in Appendix D. Lamoureux & Dickinson Page 7 Consulting Engineers, Inc. Table 4 - Williston Rd & Hinesburg Rd Intersection Capacity Analyses Results Time Period Development Scenario 2022 2032 Max. V/C Ratio Avg. Delay Int. LOS Max. V/C Ratio Avg. Delay Int. LOS AM Peak Hour No-Build Ø2 SF Res. Build Ø2 Res. Build Ø2 Res. + ½ Com. Build Full-Build 0.77 0.76 0.76 - - 21.8 21.8 21.8 - - C C C - - 0.79 0.79 0.79 0.79 0.79 22.7 22.7 22.7 23.0 23.3 C C C C C PM Peak Hour No-Build Ø2 SF Res. Build Ø2 Res. Build Ø2 Res. + ½ Com. Build Full-Build 0.82 0.81 0.81 - - 22.5 22.5 22.6 - - C C C - - 0.81 0.86 0.85 0.86 0.92 23.8 23.9 23.9 25.0 27.9 C C C C C Williston Road/Kennedy Drive/Airport Drive Table 5 presents the results of the intersection capacity analyses at this intersection. The results indicate that LOS C will be maintained for all analyzed development scenarios except for the 2032 PM Full-Build; in which the LOS drops to D. Detailed results are enclosed in Appendix E. Table 5 - Williston Rd, Kennedy Dr & Airport Dr Intersection Capacity Analyses Results Time Period Development Scenario 2022 2032 Max. V/C Ratio Avg. Delay Int. LOS Max. V/C Ratio Avg. Delay Int. LOS AM Peak Hour No-Build Ø2 SF Res. Build Ø2 Res. Build Ø2 Res. + ½ Com. Build Full-Build 0.73 0.74 0.74 - - 20.4 20.8 21.2 - - C C C - - 0.75 0.76 0.76 0.79 0.82 21.5 21.8 22.3 24.2 26.8 C C C C C PM Peak Hour No-Build Ø2 SF Res. Build Ø2 Res. Build Ø2 Res. + ½ Com. Build Full-Build 0.70 0.71 0.72 - - 20.6 21.0 21.6 - - C C C - - 0.72 0.73 0.74 0.82 0.98 21.6 22.1 22.7 29.3 46.1 C C C C D Williston Road/Gregory Drive/Palmer Court This intersection is located on a route expected to be used by a significant number of project-generated trips traveling to and from the northeast part of Chittenden County. As noted earlier, detailed capacity analyses could not be performed in this TIA due to the lack of turning movement data at it. It is our preliminary opinion, however, that future traffic volumes at this intersection will likely warrant signalization at some point during the development of this Project. Lamoureux & Dickinson Page 8 Consulting Engineers, Inc. Williston Road/Industrial Avenue Table 6 presents the results of the intersection capacity analyses at this intersection. The results indicate that LOS B will be maintained for all analyzed development scenarios except for the 2032 AM and PM Full-Build; in which the LOS drops to C. Detailed results are enclosed in Appendix F. Table 6 - Williston Rd & Industrial Ave Intersection Capacity Analyses Results Time Period Development Scenario 2022 2032 Max. V/C Ratio Avg. Delay Int. LOS Max. V/C Ratio Avg. Delay Int. LOS AM Peak Hour No-Build Ø2 SF Res. Build Ø2 Res. Build Ø2 Res. + ½ Com. Build Full-Build 0.80 0.80 0.80 - - 14.2 14.2 14.3 - - B B B - - 0.84 0.83 0.84 0.89 0.95 15.2 15.4 15.5 17.8 21.4 B B B B C PM Peak Hour No-Build Ø2 SF Res. Build Ø2 Res. Build Ø2 Res. + ½ Com. Build Full-Build 0.81 0.82 0.82 - - 14.1 14.2 14.5 - - B B B - - 0.83 0.83 0.84 0.87 0.90 15.1 15.2 15.5 18.2 22.0 B B B B C Kennedy Drive/Hinesburg Road Table 7 presents the results of the intersection capacity analyses at this intersection. The results indicate that LOS C will be maintained for all analyzed development scenarios. Detailed results are enclosed in Appendix G. Table 7 - Kennedy Dr & Hinesburg Rd Intersection Capacity Analyses Results Time Period Development Scenario 2022 2032 Max. V/C Ratio Avg. Delay Int. LOS Max. V/C Ratio Avg. Delay Int. LOS AM Peak Hour No-Build Ø2 SF Res. Build Ø2 Res. Build Ø2 Res. + ½ Com. Build Full-Build 0.79 0.79 0.79 - - 27.6 27.7 27.7 - - C C C - - 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.79 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.5 C C C C C PM Peak Hour No-Build Ø2 SF Res. Build Ø2 Res. Build Ø2 Res. + ½ Com. Build Full-Build 0.82 0.82 0.82 - - 27.4 27.5 27.7 - - C C C - - 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 28.0 28.1 28.6 29.1 30.3 C C C C C Lamoureux & Dickinson Page 9 Consulting Engineers, Inc. Kennedy Drive/Two Brothers Drive Table 8 presents the results of the intersection capacity analyses at this intersection. The results indicate that LOS B will be maintained for all analyzed development scenarios. Detailed results are enclosed in Appendix H. Table 8 - Kennedy Dr & Two Brothers Dr Intersection Capacity Analyses Results Time Period Development Scenario 2022 2032 Max. V/C Ratio Avg. Delay Int. LOS Max. V/C Ratio Avg. Delay Int. LOS AM Peak Hour No-Build Ø2 SF Res. Build Ø2 Res. Build Ø2 Res. + ½ Com. Build Full-Build 0.64 0.69 0.73 - - 15.3 16.3 17.2 - - B B B - - 0.64 0.69 0.73 0.76 0.78 15.5 16.3 17.1 18.0 18.9 B B B B B PM Peak Hour No-Build Ø2 SF Res. Build Ø2 Res. Build Ø2 Res. + ½ Com. Build Full-Build 0.49 0.55 0.61 - - 9.7 10.5 11.4 - - A B B - - 0.49 0.61 0.61 0.69 0.74 9.7 11.1 11.4 12.4 13.3 A B B B B Kennedy Drive/Kimball Avenue Table 9 presents the results of the intersection capacity analyses at this intersection. The results indicate that LOS D will be maintained for all analyzed development scenarios except for the 2032 PM Full-Build; in which the LOS drops to E. In addition, the maximum volume/capacity (V/C) ratio will exceed 1.0 in three lane groups: both lanes exiting Kimball Ave and the northbound Kennedy Dr through lanes (both of which will also experience LOS F). Future traffic congestion conditions in the 2032 AM Full-Build development scenario are slightly better; with the V/C ratio exceeding 1.0 only in the Kimball Ave through/right-turn lane. That lane will again experiences LOS F, and the northbound Kennedy Dr through lanes will experience LOS E during the morning peak hour. Detailed results are enclosed in Appendix I. Table 9 - Kennedy Dr & Kimball Ave Intersection Capacity Analyses Results Time Period Development Scenario 2022 2032 Max. V/C Ratio Avg. Delay Int. LOS Max. V/C Ratio Avg. Delay Int. LOS AM Peak Hour No-Build Ø2 SF Res. Build Ø2 Res. Build Ø2 Res. + ½ Com. Build Full-Build 0.79 0.81 0.82 - - 33.6 36.8 35.6 - - C D D - - 0.85 0.82 0.89 0.90 1.03 35.3 38.3 37.7 41.9 53.5 D D D D D PM Peak Hour No-Build Ø2 SF Res. Build Ø2 Res. Build Ø2 Res. + ½ Com. Build Full-Build 0.84 0.76 0.84 - - 33.4 35.5 37.6 - - C D D - - 0.89 0.81 0.89 0.92 1.05 35.1 36.8 39.5 40.5 57.7 D D D D E Lamoureux & Dickinson Page 10 Consulting Engineers, Inc. The above findings indicate that this intersection will require geometric improvements in order to maintain acceptable levels of service. Table 10 presents the results of additional capacity analyses incorporating the following intersection modifications and improvements in order to maintain a minimum LOS D: C The Kimball Ave approach is widened to provide double left- and double-right turn lanes (L-L/T-R-R). C The existing concurrent signal phasing for Kimball Ave and Bayberry Ln is modified to split phases. C The northbound right-turn lane on Kennedy Dr is lengthened from 150 ft to 300 ft. Table 10 - Kennedy Dr & Kimball Ave Intersection Capacity Analyses Results with Improvements Time Period Development Scenario 2032 Max. V/C Ratio Avg. Delay Int. LOS AM Peak Hour Ø2 Res. + ½ Com. Build Full-Build 0.85 0.98 36.8 44.6 D D PM Peak Hour Ø2 Res. + ½ Com. Build Full-Build 0.78 0.87 34.7 37.7 C D Kimball Avenue/Old Farm Road Note: As the preparation of this TIA was nearing completion, the City Development Review Board requested that Old Farm Rd relocation be moved from its originally proposed location which would have been a three- way intersection. Instead it was requested that Old Farm Rd line up with the existing 20-30 Kimball Ave office complex driveway access; thus creating a four-way intersection. The analyses shown in Tables 11 and 12 are for a three-way intersection. Unfortunately, no turning movement data is available for traffic entering and exiting the existing office complex, and the current COVID-19 pandemic prevented our being able to perform a new traffic count. Future traffic conditions associated with a four-way intersection at the new location will be addressed in a supplement to this TIA when normal traffic patterns resume. Table 11 presents the results of the intersection capacity analyses at this intersection using its present stop- sign traffic control. With this intersection being relocated, it is recommended that exclusive left-and right-turn lanes on Kimball Ave and separate left- and right-turn lanes exiting Old Farm Rd also be installed. Those improvements have been incorporated into the Phase Two Residential Build development scenario results shown in Table 11. The results indicate that even with those added lanes, future levels of service will drop quickly with development of this Project. Detailed results are enclosed in Appendix J. Table 11 - Kimball Ave & Old Farm Rd (Stop-Sign Controlled) Intersection Capacity Analyses Results Time Period Development Scenario 2022 2032 Max. V/C Ratio Avg. Delay Int. LOS Max. V/C Ratio Avg. Delay Int. LOS AM Peak Hour No-Build Ø2 SF Res. Build Ø2 Res. Build 0.15 0.35 0.40 15.9 24.6 41.0 C C E 0.17 0.38 0.43 16.6 26.8 46.2 C D E PM Peak Hour No-Build Ø2 SF Res. Build Ø2 Res. Build 0.18 0.35 0.38 14.4 22.1 48.5 B C E 0.20 0.38 0.42 14.9 23.9 56.3 B C F Lamoureux & Dickinson Page 11 Consulting Engineers, Inc. The above findings indicate that this intersection will likely warrant signalization in order to maintain acceptable levels of service. Table 12 presents the results of additional intersection capacity analyses showing how the installation of a traffic signal in conjunction with the above-described additional lanes will improve future levels of service at this location. Table 12 - Kimball Ave & Old Farm Rd (Signalized) Intersection Capacity Analyses Results Time Period Development Scenario 2022 2032 Max. V/C Ratio Avg. Delay Int. LOS Max. V/C Ratio Avg. Delay Int. LOS AM Peak Hour Ø2 Res. Build Ø2 Res. + ½ Com. Build Full-Build 0.52 - - 9.4 - - A - - 0.55 0.69 0.80 9.5 12.5 15.0 A B B PM Peak Hour Ø2 Res. Build Ø2 Res. + ½ Com. Build Full-Build 0.51 - - 8.6 - - A - - 0.55 0.70 0.73 8.5 12.4 16.5 A B B Kimball Avenue/I-C Lots Access This intersection will be newly constructed with development of the I-C area. As such, it is recommended that it be constructed with exclusive left- and right-turn lanes on Kimball Ave and separate left- and right-turn lanes exiting the I/C Lots Access Road. The analyses results shown in Table 13 are also based on this intersection being signalized once I-C area development reaches 50% of its projected build-out. Detailed results are enclosed in Appendix K. Table 13 - Kimball Ave & I/C Lots (Signalized) Intersection Capacity Analyses Results Time Period Development Scenario 2032 Max. V/C Ratio Avg. Delay Int. LOS AM Peak Hour Ø2 Res. + ½ Com. Build Full-Build 0.64 0.65 8.3 9.8 A A PM Peak Hour Ø2 Res. + ½ Com. Build Full-Build 0.82 0.92 16.0 29.9 B C Kimball Avenue/Gregory Drive/Community Drive Table 14 presents the results of the intersection capacity analyses at this intersection. The capacity analyses are based on this intersection being signalized by the proposed FedEx Ground Distribution Center development. The results indicate that LOS B will be maintained for all analyzed development scenarios. Detailed results are enclosed in Appendix L. Lamoureux & Dickinson Page 12 Consulting Engineers, Inc. Table 14 - Kimball Ave, Gregory Dr & Community Dr Intersection Capacity Analyses Results Time Period Development Scenario 2022 2032 Max. V/C Ratio Avg. Delay Int. LOS Max. V/C Ratio Avg. Delay Int. LOS AM Peak Hour No-Build Ø2 SF Res. Build Ø2 Res. Build Ø2 Res. + ½ Com. Build Full-Build 0.66 0.66 0.66 - - 9.9 9.9 9.9 - - A A A - - 0.67 0.68 0.68 0.71 0.74 10.1 10.1 10.1 11.0 12.1 B B B B B PM Peak Hour No-Build Ø2 SF Res. Build Ø2 Res. Build Ø2 Res. + ½ Com. Build Full-Build 0.74 0.75 0.75 - - 12.0 12.1 12.2 - - B B B - - 0.76 0.76 0.77 0.79 0.82 12.5 12.6 12.7 13.6 15.4 B B B B B Hinesburg Road/Old Farm Road Table 15 presents the results of the intersection capacity analyses at this intersection. Detailed results are enclosed in Appendix M. Being stop-sign controlled, traffic exiting Old Farm Rd, which is a single lane approach, experiences the delays and levels of service shown in Table 15. Hinesburg Rd traffic travels through this intersection with only minimal delays. Table 15 - Hinesburg Rd & Old Farm Rd Intersection Capacity Analyses Results Time Period Development Scenario 2022 2032 Max. V/C Ratio Avg. Delay Int. LOS Max. V/C Ratio Avg. Delay Int. LOS AM Peak Hour No-Build Ø2 SF Res. Build Ø2 Res. Build Ø2 Res. + ½ Com. Build Full-Build 0.41 0.42 0.44 - - 32.0 31.8 32.8 - - D D D - - 0.45 0.47 0.49 0.53 0.56 35.6 36.8 37.9 40.6 42.9 E E E E E PM Peak Hour No-Build Ø2 SF Res. Build Ø2 Res. Build Ø2 Res. + ½ Com. Build Full-Build 0.38 0.39 0.41 - - 27.5 27.9 28.7 - - D D D - - 0.43 0.44 0.46 0.59 0.70 31.0 31.5 32.5 41.1 51.8 D D D E F The results indicate that this intersection, presently experiences LOS E and D, respectively during the morning and afternoon peak hours. The LOS will remain at E during the morning peak hour with development of this Project, but will drop to LOS F during the afternoon peak hour in the 2032 Full-Build development scenario. Existing (2022 No-Build) Old Farm Rd peak hour approach volumes equal 90 vph and 98 vph during the morning and afternoon peak hours, respectively. As such, VTrans’ LOS Policy does not presently apply. With background growth, other development and this Project, those peak hour approach volumes are estimated to increase to 116 vph and 156 vph, respectively; thereby triggering VTrans’ LOS Policy for a single lane stop-sign controlled side street approach. Future Old Farm Rd approach volumes, however, are unlikely to satisfy either Lamoureux & Dickinson Page 13 Consulting Engineers, Inc. the four-hour or eight-hour volume warrants for signalization. Signalizing this intersection would also facilitate increased use of Old Farm Rd by through traffic short-cutting between Hinesburg Rd and Kimball Ave. Future traffic congestion conditions on the Old Farm Rd approach could instead be improved by installing a short (50’) exclusive right-turn lane on the existing gravel shoulder exiting Old Farm Rd. The results of additional capacity analyses with this improvement are shown in Table 16. Table 16 - Hinesburg Rd & Old Farm Rd (with added RT lane) Intersection Capacity Analyses Results Time Period Development Scenario 2032 Max. V/C Ratio Avg. Delay Int. LOS AM Peak Hour Ø2 Res. + ½ Com. Build Full-Build 0.50 0.53 37.8 39.9 E E PM Peak Hour Ø2 Res. + ½ Com. Build Full-Build 0.51 0.62 34.3 42.1 D E 6.0 Traffic Safety Vehicular traffic safety is influenced by many factors, including road width, pavement conditions, sight distances, lighting, proper signing and pavement markings, speed limits, alignment, number and spacing of accesses, etc. The following discusses several of the more important factors with respect to conditions on the adjacent street network in the immediate vicinity of the Project. Speed limits on the major streets adjacent to the Project are typical of urban streets; i.e. 30-40 mph. The speed limit on Old Farm Rd is 25 mph. The new development streets are also proposed to have 25 mph speed limits. Safe traffic conditions on the new development streets will be provided by designing those roads and their intersections in accordance with accepted standards, and by providing adequate sight distances, street lighting, pavement markings and traffic signs. The Project also proposes to add new traffic-calming features on Old Farm Rd in order to slow vehicular traffic and provide a safer environment for pedestrians. Crash History Intersections and roadway segments which experience a statistically significant above average crash rate are identified as high crash locations. VTrans has traditionally updated its High Crash Location Report11 every two years based on the most recent five-year crash history. The most recent report, however, is for the 2012-2016 five-year period. The Identified high crash locations within the study area of this TIA are shown in Table 17. Of the 75 crashes that occurred at the Williston Rd/Hinesburg Rd/Patchen Rd intersection, 70 were property damage only crashes. The remaining 5 crashes resulted in 9 injuries. The Williston Rd (mm 1.658 - 1.958) segment begins just west of the Airport Rd intersection and continues east through the Kennedy Dr/Airport Dr intersection. Of the 75 crashes that occurred on this 0.3 mile long segment of Williston Rd, 63 were property damage only crashes. The remaining 12 crashes resulted in 14 injuries. It is pertinent to note that the Williston Rd/Kennedy Dr/Airport Dr intersection was not identified as a 11 High Crash Location Report: Sections and Intersections 2012-2016, Vermont Agency of Transportation, August 2017 Lamoureux & Dickinson Page 14 Consulting Engineers, Inc. high crash location. With 36 of the 75 crashes in this segment occurring at the intersection, its presence is the primary reason for the segment being identified as a high crash location. Table 17 - High Crash Locations Location # Crashes Actual Crash Rate Actual/Critical Ratio Intersection Williston Rd/Hinesburg Rd/Patchen Rd Segment Williston Rd (mm 1.658 - 1.958) 75 75 1.373a 8.461b 1.808 1.298 a crashes per million vehicles b crashes per million vehicle miles Table 18 provides a breakdown of the crash types at the above locations. It shows that just over one-half of the crashes in the above high crash locations are rear-end crashes. Signalized intersections typically do experience greater numbers of rear-end crashes, which are generally minor and do not result in severe injuries; unlike opposing direction collisions which traffic signals are intended to prevent. Table 18 - Intersection Crash Types Crash Type Williston Rd/ Hinesburg Rd Intersection Williston Rd (mm 1.658 - 1.958) Segment Rear End Same Direction Sideswipe Opposing Dir. Sideswipe L/T Angle Broadside No Turns T/T Broadside 31 12 - 9 6 22 17 2 9 5 R/T Angle Broadside Head On Single Vehicle Other Unknown Total 1 3 1 1 11 75 1 4 2 7 6 75 7.0 Road & Intersection Improvement Phasing It is anticipated that construction of O’Brien Home Farm Phase Two will begin with the 126 proposed single- family/duplex/triplex residential units in the R1 area. Following that, the remaining residential and commercial development will be market driven. The following presents thresholds for implementing the above identified road and intersection improvements. Lamoureux & Dickinson Page 15 Consulting Engineers, Inc. Old Farm Rd and the Kimball Ave / Old Farm Rd Intersection Old Farm Rd and its existing intersection with Kimball Ave has sufficient capacity to support the development of the 126 proposed residential units in the R1 Area. The principal traffic congestion issue will be queues of westbound traffic on Kimball Ave extending past Old Farm Rd at times during peak afternoon periods due to the relatively short distance between Old Farm Rd and Kennedy Drive. This is an existing condition which is not anticipated to be materially impacted by this initial development phase. Additional development in the C1-LR Area will necessitate relocating the northerly section of Old Farm Rd as proposed so that its intersection with Kimball Ave lines up with the curb cut to the office complex at 20-30 Kimball Ave. This will increase the distance between Kennedy Dr and Old Farm Rd from 180± ft to 520± ft. The initial construction of this new intersection should include separate left-and right-turn lanes on the Old Farm Rd approach, exclusive left- and right-turn lanes on Kimball Ave, and provisions for future signalization. It is not anticipated that future traffic volumes at this intersection will meet the warrants for signalization until approximately one-half of the projected full-build trip generation in the R-1 and C1-LR Areas is reached. This will require future traffic follow-up monitoring as development progresses. Kennedy Drive / Kimball Ave Intersection It is recommended that this intersection’s existing signal phasing be modified as development of the C1-LR Area and/or the I-C Area commences to provide split phasing of the Kimball Ave and Bayberry Dr approaches. This will improve traffic safety, and is a prerequisite to widening the Kimball Ave approach to provide double turn lanes. This intersection will operate at acceptable levels of service up to approximately one-half of the projected full- build trip generation of the R1, C1-LR and I-C Areas. Beyond that, the Kimball Ave approach should be widened to provide double left-turn and right-turns in a L-LT-R-R configuration, and the Kennedy Dr NB right- turn lane lengthened from 150’ to 300’ to provide additional storage. The proposed widening will also necessitate installing two new traffic signal cantilever poles with longer arms. Kimball Ave / I-C Lots Access Rd Intersection The initial construction of this intersection should include separate left-and right-turn lanes on the I-C Lots Access Rd approach and exclusive left- and right-turn lanes on Kimball Ave. It should also include provisions for future signalization. It is not anticipated that future traffic volumes at this intersection will meet the warrants for signalization until approximately one-half of the projected full-build trip generation in the I-C Area is reached. This will require future follow-up traffic monitoring as development progresses. Williston Rd/Gregory Dr Intersection It should be anticipated that future traffic volumes at this intersection will warrant signalization at some point as O’Brien Home Farm Phase Two is developed. This will be examined in an addendum to this TIA once turning movement counts can be performed. Lamoureux & Dickinson Page 16 Consulting Engineers, Inc. 8.0 Multi-Modal Facilities This Project includes the construction of new sidewalks and shared use paths which will link with South Burlington’s existing sidewalk and path network in the Hillside at O’Brien Farm Phase One development and along Kimball Ave, Kennedy Dr and Hinesburg Rd. Marked crosswalks and pedestrian signals will also be provided at each new signalized intersection (i.e. Kimball Ave/Old Farm Rd and Kimball Ave/I-C Lots Access Road). Local transit service is also provided along Williston Rd, Kennedy Dr and Kimball Ave. Green Mountain Transit offers two routes which will provide transit service to this Project. The first is the Red Line which travels along Williston Rd to/from destinations in Burlington and Williston. The closest Red Line bus stops are on Williston Rd near its intersection with Kennedy Dr. The second is the Purple Line which circulates along Dorset St, Kennedy Dr, Airport Dr, White St and Hinesburg Rd together with providing service to destinations in Burlington. The closest bus stop along this route is in front of the Community Bank near the Kennedy Dr/Kimball Ave intersection. 8.0 Transportation Impact Fees This Project will be subject to paying impact fees which are related wholly or in part to transportation. They include: C City of South Burlington - Road Improvement Impact Fee C City of South Burlington - Recreation Impact Fee C District Environmental Commission #4 - Kimball Ave/Community Dr E Intersection Improvements Impact Fee C State of Vermont Act 145 Transportation Impact Fee. Each will be discussed in the following sections. City of South Burlington - Road Improvement Impact Fee The Road Improvement Impact Fee equals $1,010 per unit for single-family dwellings (which by definition in the LDR’s includes duplexes), $670 per unit for multi-family dwellings and $1,000 per pm peak hour trip end for non-residential development. The actual assessed fees are adjusted each year to credit past and future tax payments per the schedules in the City’s Impact Fee Ordinance. The City’s Road Improvement Impact Fee can be estimated as follows: Single Family Residential Units 126 units $127,260 Multi-Family Units 409 units $274,030 Non-Residential 1,863 pm peak hour trips $1,863,000 Total $2,264,290 City of South Burlington - Recreation Impact Fee A large portion of the Recreation Impact Fee is dedicated to the development of shared-use paths and bicycle lanes. In fact, in the projects identified in the City’s FY 2017-2026 Capital Improvement Program as being funded in part by recreation impact fees, shared use path and bike/ped facility projects account for 77% of the allocated recreation impact fees. The recreation impact fee is assessed only on residential development. The base fee for dwellings in structures containing three or less units equals $1,686 per unit. For dwellings in structures containing four or more units the base fee equals $1,180 per unit. The actual assessed fees are again adjusted each year to credit past and future tax payments per the schedules in the City’s Impact Fee Ordinance. Lamoureux & Dickinson Page 17 Consulting Engineers, Inc. The City’s Road Improvement Impact Fee can be estimated as follows: Single Family & Duplex Units 126 units $212,436 Multi-Family Units 409 units $482,620 Total $695,056 District Environmental Commission #4 - Kimball Ave/Gregory Dr/Community Dr Intersection Improvements Impact Fee This impact fee has been established by the District Environmental Commission to reimburse the FedEx Ground Distribution Center developers for the cost of installing traffic signals and making other improvements at the Kimball Ave/Gregory Dr/Community Dr intersection. The amount of the fee equals $514 per pm peak trip end. This fee may be reduced by 20% since this Project will construct new sidewalks (10% discount) and shared-use paths (10% discount) connecting to existing sidewalks and shared use paths. The discounted fee equals $411 per pm peak trip end. This Project is estimated to generate a total of 461 new pm peak hour trips through this intersection. The resulting impact fee equals $189,471. We note that Finding of Fact #11.h in the Land-Use Permit for the FedEx project requires that this intersection improvement project be completed before the Commission begins assessing this impact fee. We also note that this same project is included in the City’s FY 2017-2026 Capital Improvement Program and is shown as being funded in part by the City’s Roadway Improvement Impact Fee. State Act 145 Transportation Impact Fee The Act 145 Transportation Impact Fee was established to provide funding for designated VTrans transportation improvement projects located within a five-mile travel distance of proposed developments. This impact fee is administered by VTrans through the District Environmental Commissions. The impact fee is based on the number of pm peak hour trips that are estimated to travel through the locations of the improvement projects. The number of trips traveling through each highway improvement project were estimated using available pm peak hour turning movement patterns at major intersections. The trips disperse at each intersection; thereby reducing the number of project-generated pm peak hour trips as one moves away from the Project. Detailed calculations are enclosed as Appendix N. Table 19 shows the estimated State Transportation Impact Fees for each transportation improvement project. Table 19 - Act 145 State Transportation Impact Fees Transportation Improvement Project Distance (Road Miles) Impact Fee per PM Peak Hour Trip PM Peak Hour Trips Act 145 Transportation Impact Fee Burlington - Champlain Parkway 4.1 $ 2,069 42 $ 86,898 Burlington - Shelburne St & Locust St Roundabout 4.1 $ 1,217 66 $ 80,322 Colchester - US 7 & I-89 Exit 16 4.8 $ 1,170 64 $ 74,880 Essex Jct. - Crescent Connector 4.5 $2,788 113 $ 315,044 Williston - VT 2A & James Brown Dr 3.3 $ 189 173 $ 32,697 Williston - VT 2A & Industrial Ave/ Mountain View Rd 2.6 $ 252 252 $ 63,504 Williston - US 2 & Trader Lane 2.6 $ 210 23 $ 4,830 Williston - VT 2A & I-89 Exit 12 3.0 $ 243 42 $ 10,206 Subtotal $ 668,381 Lamoureux & Dickinson Page 18 Consulting Engineers, Inc. Transportation Improvement Project Distance (Road Miles) Impact Fee per PM Peak Hour Trip PM Peak Hour Trips Act 145 Transportation Impact Fee 20% Max. Reduction for TDM Measures (New Sidewalks, Bicycle Paths & Bus Shelters) - $ 133,676 Total $ 534,705 10.0 Conclusions & Recommendations The O’Brien Home Farm is designed to be a mixed use residential/commercial planned unit development. Located in a transitional area, it links and complements other neighboring developments. We conclude, based on the analyses performed as part of this TIA, that the existing off-site highways and intersections in the immediate vicinity of this Project have sufficient capacity and safety. This Project will require major improvements, however, to Kimball Avenue both at its intersection with Kennedy Drive and extending eastward to the new I-C Lots Access Drive. Further distant, the traffic impacts of the O’Brien Home Farm Phase Two development will be mitigated by future City and State transportation improvement projects currently under development; towards which Finney Crossing will pay local and state transportation impact fees.